Nevada Wins PAC News

Why We Should Not Count on the Red Wave 

by Nikolas Powers, Head Data Intern

Nevada Wins PAC

We have about four weeks left until early voting kicks off in Nevada, and we are hard at work preparing for the final stretch. For over a year now, the Nevada Wins PAC has been polling independents throughout the state to get a better understanding of the issues that are pertinent to that important demographic. In our last polling cycle, we added a Generic Ballot question which asked independents, “If the election were held today, what party would you vote for?”. Democrats and Republicans were tied at 23% support each, 18% said they would vote for another candidate, and 34% of independents said they were undecided. This poll shows that it is still anyone’s race to win. 

The polls understated Republican support in 2016 and 2020. It is possible that 2022 may be no different. After President Biden’s speech labeling Republicans as “fascists” voters may be hesitant to voice Republican support, which could cause an understatement in the polling of how many people will actually vote Republican. However, we should not take this for granted. Some of the races we are targeting need upwards of 60% support from independents to win, which implies that we have some work to do. The good news is that roughly half of Independents have not declared that they are aligned with either major political party. This means that conservatives must have a major campaign to persuade independents to vote for our candidates. From our polling, we know that independents are conservative on inflation, crime, and education, so it is necessary for conservatives to show how their values closely align with independents on these issues. Even if the President’s speech has led to an under sampling of Republican support, an all-out effort of talking to independents would not hurt us. In fact, it would help push even more conservative candidates across the finish line. We believe that our data shows that all conservatives should be out in the field talking to independent voters regardless of what the polls say. 

Feel free to reach out with any questions about our polling methodology or results by emailing info@nevadawinspac.org.