Nevada Wins PAC News

Sixty-four Days to Create A Conservative Coalition

Can We Do It?

Sixty-four days! That’s all the time that conservatives have left of this election cycle.  Right now, we have the electoral advantage of a deeply unpopular president, rampant inflation, and soaring crime. Considering this, conservatives in Nevada should win decisively in November, right? Not necessarily.

While there are reasons to be optimistic about conservatives winning this cycle, it is far too early to call the election in our favor. Conservatives must work hard to earn every vote. In many of our Legislative races, our margins of loss or victory will be incredibly tight. The Nevada Wins PAC has done Generic Ballot polling amongst Independents and early results show that Independents as a whole are evenly split for Republicans and Democrats. However, Independents who describe themselves as moderate are hesitant to vote for a Republican candidate. Considering the positives and negatives, how can Conservatives win in Nevada? There are two key developments which must occur for Conservatives to perform well at the ballot-box; hold the Senate and win the Assembly.

To further understand, I offer a positive analysis for the electoral makeup going into November. Republicans are facing some of the most favorable conditions statewide in around eight years. Democrats now only have a 50,000 active voter registration lead on Republicans. For comparison, their registration lead in 2020 was around 100,000. Specific to the legislature, one State Senate seat is very likely to flip in our favor. In five Assembly seats, however, current projections show us losing by less than 100 votes. Winning those five Assembly seats would give Republicans control of the State Assembly. To lose them by a mere 100 votes would be an atrocity. It would also mean Nevada continues its decline under the thumb of Democrats. It's time for Republicans to unite with each other and with Independents. We cannot win without the Independent vote and right now, Independents are not overwhelmingly in favor of voting Republican. But why?

Independents do not like the "noise" that goes along with in-fighting. In recent weeks, there has been a considerable amount of "noise" about who are “real Republicans”. If Republicans allow themselves to remain divided, we will lose the Independents and thus lose this election. Republicans must remain united and not purge miniscule differences from the party. We must not stoop to the level of the Far Left by embracing a mob cancel culture mentality; otherwise, we are no better than them. We owe it to all those who have sacrificed so much for our Constitution to engage with those who disagree with us, not shut them down.

Nevada is truly a “No-Party” State. Currently, over 37% of the electorate is not affiliated with any major political party. Republicans cannot win by solely turning their base out to vote. They must turn to the Independents to help carry conservative candidates across the finish line. Here, dialogue is extremely powerful. The Nevada Wins PAC has been polling Independents for over a year now, and while there are times when Republicans and Independents do not see eye-to-eye, many times both groups do. We have identified that Independents support school choice and parental rights, fighting inflation, and cracking down on rising crime. Is this not what Republicans want for Nevada? Remember, our polling shows that many moderate Independents are on the fence about voting for a Republican candidate. Therefore, it is critical that Conservatives have civil discourse with these voters to change their hearts and minds about voting Conservative.

There are reasons to be optimistic about this election. However, Republicans must engage and unite with Independents to enable Conservatives to have a say in Nevada Public Policy.

Nikolas Powers

Head Data Intern at Nevada Wins PAC

Feel free to reach out with any inquiries on our analysis by emailing: info@nevadawinspac.org