WHY

The 2022 Midterm elections are now behind us.  Understandably, Conservatives, including Nevada Conservatives, were disappointed in the Red Wave that did not happen.  To assess why our Data Group has started a post-mortem and preliminarily reached some general conclusions.

Our analysis suggests ballot harvesting was not a significant factor in the last cycle; however, the PAC will test some ballot-gathering methods for efficacy in several off-cycle special elections.

So what did go wrong?  For those old enough to remember the Cartoon Strip, Pogo, you will recall, "We have met the enemy, and he is us." An overview of the data indicates that Republicans turned out more than 70% and exceeded the Democrat turnout by percentage and the number of voters despite being the number three party in Nevada.  The analysis also shows that most Non-partisan voters did not vote (under 40% turnout), and those that did tended to vote Progressive, contrary to Nevada Wins PAC polling which indicated a 55% vs. 45% favorable lean toward Conservative issues. To win future elections, the Nevada Wins PAC must determine why this happened and what campaigns can do to achieve election victories in the next cycle.

Campaign strategies in the future must include significant efforts in addressing the issues of concern to the Non-partisan voters.  Republicans turned out, and that turnout will increase in the next cycle as it will be a Presidential election.  But Republican votes alone are insufficient to win competitive races. The PAC has identified the critical issue areas that motivate the Non-partisan voter. In the next cycle, all Republican candidates must have a unified message regarding those key issues, especially in State legislative races.  Candidates must convey one common message.  If you, the voters, put us in the majority, we will do this, pointing to specific measures they would pass.  Candidates must also clearly convey that it is the Democrats who blocked critical measures in the most recent session.

Regarding the 2023 legislative session, we believe that both Republican Legislative Caucuses should consider introducing "message bills" in the issue areas identified by our polling.  By doing so, Candidates can point to these message bills and use them when addressing voters, clearly stating why these bills are essential and why Republicans must be in the majority so they can pass these bills and letting voters know Democrats refused to pass them.  The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal on January 3, 2023, stated: "Symbolic votes have their uses, and debates and floor votes…will be important to have."

Republicans should not be discouraged by the 2022 election outcome. Instead, they should focus on what they want to achieve for themselves and their families and make their expectations known.  We can win Nevada.

Michael A Kadenacy, Chairman of the Board, Nevada Wins PAC

January 12, 2023